Udayavni Special

India’s growth may slip below 3% in FY21 if COVID-19 proliferates: KPMG


Team Udayavani, Apr 6, 2020, 9:25 PM IST

New Delhi: India’s growth could slip below 3 per cent in the current fiscal if COVID-19 proliferates within India, lockdown extended and the global economy slips into recession, a KPMG report said.

It said the three major contributors to GDP – private consumption, investment and external trade will all get affected due to the spread of the pandemic.

The KPMG report presented three scenarios to explain the economic effects of COVID-19. In the scenario of quick retraction across the globe by April-end to mid-May, the report said: “India’s growth for 2020-21 may be in the range of 5.3 to 5.7 per cent, though this scenario looks distant at this moment”.

In the second scenario where India is able to control COVID-19 spread, but there is a significant global recession, the KPMG report said India’s growth is expected to be in the range of 4-4.5 per cent.

However, if the pandemic proliferates and there is global recession then it would be a double whammy for the economy as it will have to bear the brunt of both domestic and global demand destruction, KPMG report said.

“Prolonged lockdowns would exacerbate economic troubles. India’s growth may fall below 3 per cent under this scenario,” it added.

These growth projections compare to an estimated 5 per cent growth rate in 2019-20.

The report said steps taken to contain the virus spread such as the nationwide lockdown have brought economic activity to a near-standstill, with impacts on both consumption and investment.

“While Indian businesses, barring a few sectors, can possibly insulate themselves from the global supply chain disruptions caused by the outbreak due to relatively lower reliance on intermediate imports, their exports to COVID-19 infected nations could take a hit,” it said.

Top News

Karnataka: Hotels and restaurants to open in few days

COVID-19: 3 Qatar returnees in DK, 3 Maha returnees in Udupi test positive; state toll rises to 2282

Cyclone Amphan a blessing in disguise for lockdown-hit jobless labourers in West Bengal

COVID-19 death toll in India climbs to 4,167

WHO suspends COVID-19 trials of HCQ over safety issues

Udupi: Three-month-old video goes viral; DC clarifies

Bengaluru: Govt schools in Malleshwaram to soon be exposed to e-learning, says Ashwath Narayan

Related Articles More

Gujarat ‘worse’ in handling COVID-19 crisis: Raut

Centre’s lockdown strategy has failed: Rahul Gandhi

Cyclone Amphan a blessing in disguise for lockdown-hit jobless labourers in West Bengal

Chardham project: Nitin Gadkari lauds BRO for Chamba tunnel construction

COVID-19 death toll in India climbs to 4,167

MUST WATCH

Tragedy and chaos: Former MIA director recalls Mangalore Air Crash

Lockdown relaxation: Long queues outside liquor stores in Mangaluru

Indian Coast Guard thank Covid-19 warriors

#WeFeed – Feeding stray animals during lockdown!

Mysuru-origin doctor honoured with parade for her service in treating COVID-19 patients in US

Latest Additions

Squash player Fadte returns to Goa after being stuck in UK

Karnataka: Hotels and restaurants to open in few days

Gowda quarantine row: Karnataka revises SOP; exempts ministers, officials from quarantine

Against right to freedom of movement: DKShi on Yogi’s plan for permission from state to hire local workers

NASA seeking volunteers for paid 8 months isolation in fake Mars mission

Thanks for visiting Udayavani

You seem to have an Ad Blocker on.
To continue reading, please turn it off or whitelist Udayavani.