India’s R-value further reduces, COVID-19 peak likely in next 14 days: IIT analysis


PTI, Jan 23, 2022, 12:51 PM IST

Credit: iStock Photo

India’s R-value which indicates the rate of spread of coronavirus has further reduced to 1.57 in the week from January 14-21 and the national peak of the third wave of the infection is expected to come in the next fortnight, according to a preliminary analysis by IIT Madras.

R-value indicates the number of people an infected person can spread the disease to. A pandemic is considered to end if this value goes below 1.

According to the analysis shared by IIT Madras with PTI, the R-value was recorded at 1.57 between January 14 and January 21. The number was recorded at 2.2 in the week of January 7-13 while it was 4 from January 1-6 and 2.9 from December 25- 31.

The preliminary analysis was done by computational modeling by IIT Madras’ Department of Mathematics and Centre of Excellence for Computational Mathematics and Data Science headed by Prof Neelesh S Upadhye and Prof S Sundar.

According to the data, the R-value of Mumbai was 0.67, Delhi 0.98, Chennai 1.2 and Kolkata 0.56.

Explaining further, Dr Jayant Jha, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics, IIT Madras, said the R-value of Mumbai and Kolkata shows that peak is over there and it is becoming endemic while for Delhi and Chennai it is still close to 1.

”The reason for that could be that as per the new ICMR guidelines they have removed the requirement for contact tracing and therefore there are less infections as earlier,” he told PTI.

Apex health body the ICMR has issued guidelines as per which contacts of coronavirus patients do not need testing unless identified as high-risk based on age or comorbidities.

Jha further said as per their analysis, the coronavirus peak is likely to come in the next 14 days till February 6.

The earlier prediction was that the peak of the third wave is likely between February 1 and February 15.

The third wave of COVID-19 is being driven by the Omicron variant. India logged 3,33,533 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, raising the tally to 3,92,37,264.

Udayavani is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest news.

Top News

China and Russia veto new UN sanctions on North Korea

No “political ties” between Congress, JD(S) for RS or 2023 Assembly poll: Siddaramaiah

Karnataka Secretariat employees to boycott work on Friday, govt calls it ‘illegal’

Padubidri: Woman ends life by jumping into well

Puttur: Man dies of electrocution while cutting trees

Mangaluru: Man kidnapped, beaten up by gang

Infosys CEO Salil Parekh gets 88 pc jump in salary to Rs 79.75 crore


Related Articles More

LS secretariat asks estates officer to initiate eviction proceedings against ex-AAP MP Mann

Vice President Naidu to visit Gabon, Senegal and Qatar from May 30 to June 7

PM Modi picks Tamil pitch

Eight-year-old Malda girl meets Mamata to thank her for welfare schemes

SC sets aside HC order staying SFIO probe into 9 companies related to Sahara group

MUST WATCH

NEWS BULLETIN 26-05-2022

Dr. Surendra Kumar Jain atatement about malali masjid

Anjaneeya swamy Temple Mysore

Manipal Road Mishap Student end his Life

NEWS BULLETIN 25-05-2022


Latest Additions

Outsiders picking Udupi as suicide spot: ADGP Alok Kumar says thorough review needed

Textbook revision: Dr. SL Bhyrappa criticizes objections raised

China and Russia veto new UN sanctions on North Korea

No “political ties” between Congress, JD(S) for RS or 2023 Assembly poll: Siddaramaiah

LS secretariat asks estates officer to initiate eviction proceedings against ex-AAP MP Mann

Thanks for visiting Udayavani

You seem to have an Ad Blocker on.
To continue reading, please turn it off or whitelist Udayavani.